A national health supply-chain agency · East Africa
Rebuilding a national network model
8,877
health facilities modelled, nationwide
2.2×
the coverage of the 2013 baseline study
372,480
depot-to-facility pairs computed
5–7%
network operating cost saving identified
~3 years
payback on the recommended rollout
The problem
A national health supply-chain agency was still planning against a baseline study completed in 2013. The country’s health facility network had grown substantially in the intervening decade, and decisions about where to hold stock were being made on a picture that no longer matched the ground.
What we did
We rebuilt the study from first principles rather than updating its figures. That meant constructing a routable national road network from open mapping data, geolocating 8,877 served health facilities nationwide, and computing a full origin-destination matrix of 372,480 depot-to-facility pairs. We modelled demand growth from 61,369 cubic metres per year to a projected 75,045 cubic metres by 2035, and evaluated 48 candidate depot locations against it.
The resulting study covers 2.2 times as many facilities as the 2013 baseline it replaces.
What we found
The analysis identified operating-cost savings in the range of 5 to 7%, with an approximate three-year payback on the recommended depot rollout — a return that survives the uncertainty in the demand forecast rather than depending on it.
What we delivered
A complete network study with an executive briefing pack, and — the part that outlasts the engagement — a custom desktop route-planning application, delivered with an installer and user manuals, so the client’s own planners can re-run the analysis as their network changes. The work was presented in-country and delivered ahead of the contracted deadline.